Decision 2016 - How Well Do You Make Decisions?

Imagine you had to make the following two decisions simultaneously (and you had no moral objection to gambling).

Decision #1:

Choice A: Sure gain of $240

Choice B: 25% chance to gain $1000 and 75% chance to gain nothing

Decision #2:

Choice C: Sure loss of $750

Choice D: 75% chance to lose $1000 and 25% chance to lose nothing

If you are like most people, you’d probably choose A and then D. No one in their right mind would pick C under any circumstances, right? Without a doctorate in statistics, but with some slow and effortful thinking, we can reason through the following if we focus on “the big picture”…

What do the following decisions taken together really mean?

Choice A and D = 25% chance to win $240 and 75% chance to lose $760

Choice B and C = 25% chance to win $250 and 75% chance to lose $750

(If you doubt it, go back and study it for a while)

Including choice C (a sure loss of $750) with choice B is a better gamble.1

I know...it's hard to believe.

The above is an example of a situation that is easily under analyzed by the average person, but over analyzing can lead to bad decisions as well. I think the current presidential election is an example of something currently being over analyzed. With all the talk of tax returns, an pneumonia and even the current president’s origin of birth, we easily get lost in the arcane details. How can we look at the big picture of a complex situation without be sidetracked by all the obscure and often irrelevant data?

The decisions about gambling shown above can be looked at objectively; decisions about elections get much more subjective, but here’s a way to look at it using a simplified version of a process we use where I work called Decision Analysis—except that it’s done in terms of Faith and Reason. First, some clarity on what’s most important…

-       What is important?

-       Reality is important.

-       What is Catholicism?

-       A universal way of seeing reality; a way of seeing in which we can best respond to the world around us.

Now, what are the specific ways in which government acts or has acted to undermine this reality (policy or law contrary to the Catholic faith)? What are the trends?

Please Note: What follows is just an example. You can make your own list of issues and follow each step using your own input, but be specific. Things like “Life Issues”, “Social Justice”, “Religious Liberty” and even "Temperament" are too general.

Step 1: List specific issues (as many as you want)

• Euthanasia
• Abortion
• Torture
• Marriage definition
• Unjust war
• HSS Mandate

Step 2: Think of the current impact of each issue and its potential trend

Issue	Impact
Euthanasia	Legal in 4 states, trend increasing
Abortion	>1 million babies killed per year (U.S.) and continuing unabated
Torture	Currently no reports of the gov. torturing people. Those in favor could reinstate it
Marriage Definition	Adds to sexual confusion/sin. Discrimination increasing for those holding a traditional marriage view
Unjust War	Dealing with world-wide aftermath. Those in favor could start a new war
HSS Mandate	Law suits taking time & money. Catholic Institutions closing or being punished. Higher cost to government to fill the gap.

Step 3: Find the most serious issue and give it a 10 (there can be more than one 10). Compare others to it and assign numbered weights by comparing to the 10. Remember that this is only an example.

Issue	Impact	Weight
Euthanasia	Legal in 4 states, trend increasing	7
Abortion	>1 million babies killed per year (U.S.) and continuing unabated	10
Torture	Currently no reports of the gov. torturing people. Those in favor could reinstate it	3
Marriage Definition	Adds to sexual confusion/sin. Discrimination increasing for those holding a traditional marriage view	8
Unjust War	Dealing with world-wide aftermath. Those in favor could start a new war	6
HSS Mandate	Law suits taking time & money. Catholic Institutions forced to close or be punished. Higher cost to government to fill the gap.	7

Step 4: Compare candidates. Score the best candidate for each issue with a 10. Note that 10 does not mean “perfect” and there can be more than one 10. Score remaining candidates (0–10) relative to the 10. Multiply score x weight and add the weighted scores.

Issue	Weight	Democrat	Republican	Libertarian	Green
Euthanasia	7	6 6x7=42	10 10x7=70	2 2x7=14	5 5x7=35
Abortion	10	2 2x10=20	10 10x10=100	6 6x10=60	4 4x10=40
Torture	3	10 10x3=30	0 0x3=0	9 9x3=27	10 10x3=30
Marriage Definition	8	2 2x8=16	10 10x8=80	5 5x8=40	2 2x8=16
Unjust War	6	7 7x6=42	2 2x6=12	10 10x6=60	7 7x6=42
HSS Mandate	7	5 5x7=35	8 8x7=56	10 10x7=70	4 4x7=28
	Weighted Score	185	318	271	191

Please Note: At this point in the election cycle, carefully analyzing a third party candidate is like analyzing a fantasy…interesting, but basically a waste of time.

Step 5: Asses risk. Look at the candidate with the highest weighted score and ask, “If he/she was elected what could go wrong?” Are we willing to accept the risk(s) to gain the benefit of this choice? If yes, pick it. If not, repeat for the next best candidate.

Now, this is all very interesting, but let’s not kid ourselves; people won’t do this. Thinking is very hard and we are very lazy, so we make quick decisions based on intuition like choosing A and D in the gambling example above.

I try not to make decisions based solely on intuition, but I will make a prediction. I predict the Republican running for president will lose and at about the same margin as the 2012 election (332 to 206 electoral votes). But Donald Trump and Mitt Romney are so vastly different in how they present themselves; what makes me think the result will be about the same?

I think the “God Demographics” of society are changing. What do I mean by God demographics? As a society moves further and further from God, it must naturally gravitate more and more toward sin (we won’t stay still). If sin is the root of all unhappiness, then more sin means more dissatisfaction with life. If we are moving away from God, we must find another “savior” to liberate us from what is wrong so we can finally be happy.

In general terms (there are plenty of exceptions I'm sure), I think the portions of the electorate who are satisfied with life want less government involvement, fewer taxes, less regulation, etc. They tend to lean Republican. Those dissatisfied look to government as the ultimate source to make things right, just, fair, etc. They tend to lean Democrat. Other political parties never seem to gain ground either way. The current Republican presidential candidate is certainly not your typical candidate, but I think the pattern in God Demographics mentioned above will “Trump” everything else. We’ll see.

For those looking for a simpler analysis, I heard this on the Dennis Prager radio show not too long ago...

• Door #1 says "Man Eating Lion."
• Door #2 says "Perhaps Man Eating Lion."

Which do you choose?

We await your decision.

I'll take Door #2
BTW,
Trump = Door #2

1. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011) p. 334.